Ecological niche modelling of a critically endangered species Commiphora wightii (Arn.) Bhandari using bioclimatic and non-bioclimatic variables

Abstract Background The aim of this study is to examine the effects four different bioclimatic predictors (current, 2050, 2070, and 2090 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5) non-bioclimatic variables (soil, habitat heterogeneity index, land use, slope, aspect) on suitability niche dimensions critically endangered plant species Commiphora wightii in India. We also evaluate how modelling affects its extent occurrence (EOO) area occupancy (AOO). Results receiver operating curve (AUC) values produced by maximum entropy (Maxent) various time frames were more than 0.94, indicating excellent model accuracy. Non-bioclimatic characteristics, with exception terrain slope aspect, decreased accuracy our model. Additionally, Maxent was lowest across all combinations (AUC = 0.75 0.78). With current, 2070 projections, revealed significance water availability parameters (BC-12 BC-19, i.e. annual seasonal precipitation as well wettest, driest, coldest months quarters) for species. However, projection, energy such mean temperature wettest quarter (BC-8) isothermality (BC-3) identified governing factors. Excessive salt, rooting conditions, use type (grassland), characteristics community, noticed have an impact Through distribution both native (western India) exotic (North-east, Central Part India, northern eastern Ghat) habitats, we able simulate fundamental realized niche. Our EOO AOO analysis reflects possibility many new areas India where can be planted grown. Conclusion According calculated classes, conclude that C. 's potentially suitable optimum moderate classes would increase future scenarios (2090 > 2050 ? current), demonstrating there are habitats available artificial cultivation will projections 2090. Predictive sites indicated favours types landforms outside rocky environments, sand dunes, sandy plains, young alluvial saline areas, so on. research crucial information regarding community dispersion variable, notably coefficient variation that, when + coupled, disguised factors frames.